MON:
– FOMC SLOOS
– BoJ Minutes (Sep)
– BoC Market Participants Survey
– Japanese Jibun Final Composite/Services PMIs (Oct)
– German Industrial Orders (Sep)
– EZ Final Construction/Services PMIs (Oct)
– UK Final Construction PMI (Oct)
– US Employment Trends (Oct)
TUE:
– RBA Policy Announcement
– EIA STEO
– Chinese Trade Balance (Oct)
– EZ Producer Prices (Sep)
– US International Trade (Sep)
– Canadian Trade Balance (Sep)
WED:
– BoC Minutes (Oct)
– NBP Policy Announcement
– Norges Bank FSR (H2)
– Eurogroup Meeting
– German Final CPI (Oct)
– EZ Retail Sales (Sep)
THU:
– Banxico Policy Announcement
– BoJ SOO (Oct)
– Riksbank FSR (H2)
– Chinese CPI & PPI (Oct)
– US IJC (30th Oct w/e)
– New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
FRI:
– RBA SOMP
– US Veteran’s Day (USTs closed)
– BoC SLOS
– UK GDP (Sep/Q3)
– Norwegian CPI (Oct)
– US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Nov)
– Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Oct)
NOTE: Previews are listed in day order.
RBA Announcement (Tue): The RBA is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps at the upcoming meeting. The decision is supported by the hotter-than-expected CPI data for Q3 and September, as well as the PPI and Retail Sales data. However, the Labour Force Report suggests a more cautious approach due to lower employment change and unexpected changes in participation and unemployment rates. The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures November 2023 contract indicates a 50/50 expectation of a rate increase. Governor Bullock has emphasized the bank’s focus on inflation and the need for possible rate hikes. Analysts at Westpac believe the rate hike decision will be finely balanced.
Chinese Trade Balance (Tue): The Chinese Trade Balance data will provide insights into domestic and foreign demand in the second-largest economy. Recent Caixin PMI data suggests weak demand, with the lowest reading for total new orders this year. China reported a smaller-than-expected decline in exports in September, while imports missed expectations. The data will contribute to the narrative of global growth and China’s stimulus efforts to support its economy.
BoC Minutes (Wed): The BoC kept rates unchanged and expressed readiness to hike rates further if needed. The MPR revised inflation forecasts higher and revised growth prospects for 2023 and 2024 lower. The BoC expects inflation to return to target by the end of 2025. Governor Macklem and Deputy Governor Rogers pushed back on rate cuts, indicating that bond yield increases are just one factor among many. Analysts at RBC do not anticipate additional hikes and expect the overnight rate to be held at 5% through H1 2024.
Banxico Announcement (Thu): Private sector analysts expect headline inflation to be at 4.6% and core inflation at 5.11% this year. Growth forecasts for 2023 have improved to 3.29%, and 2024 growth forecasts have been revised to 2.0%. Interest rates are predicted to remain unchanged at 11.25% by the end of this year. Capital Economics anticipates a slowdown in the coming quarters due to tight monetary policy and weaker growth in the US. They expect growth to be around 1.8%, lower than consensus expectations.
BoJ SOO (Thu): The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its latest meeting will provide further insights into the central bank’s thinking. The recent tweak to YCC and the more flexible approach to its implementation will be of interest. The BoJ aims to prevent financial market volatility and achieve its price target. Governor Ueda noted the bank’s commitment to monetary easing and its willingness to take additional measures if necessary.
Chinese Inflation (Thu): Chinese inflation data will add to the understanding of China’s economic health. Caixin PMI data suggests that while cost pressures remained muted, companies raised their own selling prices. Input costs increased but were passed on to customers. ING predicts that Chinese inflation will slightly rise to 0.2% YoY and gradually reach around 1% in 2024.
UK GDP (Fri): Expectations are for a contraction of 0.1% MoM in September. This data will provide insights into the performance of the UK economy.
